What the scan found
Units
Click a column to sort and a unit to see its fit. Share is the slope of offer on the DA price, Intercept its constant. The strike is a range: the high end assumes the intercept is all strike, the low end that the operator also counts a credit of about $30/MWh (roughly the PTC) in its break-even. Floor is the unit's most common offer; DA share is its DAM energy award as a share of its real-time base point energy.
Formula by day
The share and intercept fitted on each formula day alone, at the same settlement point. A flat line means one standing rule; a change marks a new rule or a new contract.
Bidding history
Bidding changes
How it works
Per MWh, a plant hedged on a DA-settled, as-generated contract earns roughly the real-time price at its node, plus share × (strike − DA price at the settlement point), plus any per-MWh credit. Generating pays only when the RT price beats share × DA − (share × strike + credit), and that is the offer a QSE bidding the contract submits. Each hour's offer is the median over its SCED runs of the submitted curve's price at half its MW, kept only when it did not move within the hour (a DA-based price is hourly). A formula day has at least four such hours at four or more prices, after dropping a floor or cap the formula is clamped to. Every candidate settlement point (the unit's own node, each hub and load zone) is fitted on each formula day; the point's formula is the median over days, and its hit rate is the share of hours it predicts within $2.
PTC floor level
How changes are found
Reading it with care
Most units never show a formula: a flat offer at −$30 or $0 says what the unit gives up by not running, not how it is hedged, and physical, as-available or fixed-shape contracts leave no trace in offers at all. A formula that only appears on high-price days (Outpost and Frye during Winter Storm Fern) is a policy the operator switched on, not a standing rule. The slope is the share of the bidder's exposure tied to that DA price, which need not match the contracted share: Phoebe's public hedge covers 89% of output, while its offers follow 100% of HB_NORTH. Where a unit's node prices like a hub or load zone, the fit cannot tell them apart, and the tier says so.